A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
